The lottery - an order statistics paradox?
Suppose 6 balls are drawn uniformly from 49 balls (numbered 1 to 49), without replacement.
Sort the balls by the value of their numeric label and let xi be the value of the ith ranked ball for i from 1 to 6.
Then, for k = 1,2,3,...,49:
(Proof: homework exercise.)
These distributions look like this for i = 1,2,3,4,5,6; and
have the mean and mode as in the table. (Proof: another homework exercise.)
|
i | mean | mode |
1 | 50/7 | 1 |
2 | 100/7 | 10 |
3 | 150/7 | 20 |
4 | 200/7 | 30 |
5 | 250/7 | 40 |
6 | 300/7 | 49 |
|
In other words, the most likely value for the smallest numbered ball is 1,
the most likely value for the second smallest numbered ball is 10, and so on.
Everything I have claimed so far is correct.
Therefore, you should put your money on balls 1,10,20,30,40, and 49.
The last statement is nonsense. Why? (Don't tell me; I know.)
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